A book in progress · draft in public · 2026
Simulating futures to build the one we want. The story of teaching computers the law, building a simulated country to run it on, and grading the predictions against reality — and of the fork that decides who the machinery serves.
Every dot is a household. Same average income either way — but only one view shows who falls off a benefit cliff.
In 1957, Guy Orcutt noticed that national averages can be identical while the lives underneath them differ completely — so he proposed simulating the households instead. This book is about what happened when that idea finally got the machinery it needed, and the case it builds is one sentence long: history should have auditors, not an author.
The discipline the book runs on
A simulation is admissible only where its verification chain terminates in ground truth — a rule checked against the statute, a population checked against the census, a forecast graded when the official number lands.
Chapter 3 states it; chapters 9–13 build the machinery that enforces it — merge-blocking source checks, oracle races against the models governments already trust, and a public scoreboard that waits for reality.
A draft, graded like its subject
The book argues that claims should carry their verification state, so this draft carries its own. These figures are computed from the manuscript at every build; the pending marks are visible in the text where they sit.
occasional updates as the draft hardens · no spam